Matchup plots
Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)
Deck only
Overall
Nash equilibria for entrants
Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).
Mean Nash win rate
Deck-only mean win rate
| P1 |
0.529 |
| P2 |
0.471 |
| Both |
0.500 |
Overall mean win rate
| P1 |
0.51 |
| P2 |
0.49 |
| Both |
0.50 |
Mean Nash pick rate
Deck-only mean pick distribution
| Nightmare |
0.215 |
0.139 |
0.196 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Present |
0.098 |
0.201 |
0.189 |
| Miracle Grow |
0.213 |
0.090 |
0.128 |
| [Balance]/Blood/Strength |
0.071 |
0.142 |
0.114 |
| [Past]/Anarchy/Peace |
0.078 |
0.110 |
0.109 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace |
0.093 |
0.062 |
0.096 |
| MonoRed |
0.157 |
0.057 |
0.091 |
| [Past/Present]/Peace |
0.012 |
0.105 |
0.032 |
| [Balance/Growth]/Finesse |
0.029 |
0.055 |
0.025 |
| [Feral]/Fire/Law |
0.034 |
0.040 |
0.018 |
Overall mean pick distribution
| EricF |
0.362 |
0.344 |
0.479 |
| zhavier |
0.166 |
0.207 |
0.183 |
| FrozenStorm |
0.168 |
0.184 |
0.152 |
| bolyarich |
0.100 |
0.120 |
0.091 |
| Akiata |
0.064 |
0.061 |
0.058 |
| Bomber678 |
0.054 |
0.026 |
0.016 |
| dwarddd |
0.015 |
0.040 |
0.014 |
| codexnewb |
0.067 |
0.011 |
0.007 |
| charnel_mouse |
0.003 |
0.003 |
0.001 |
| CarpeGuitarrem |
0.001 |
0.005 |
0.000 |
| Nopethebard |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
