Entrants

player deck
FrozenStorm [Future]/Necromancy/Peace
charnel_mouse [Balance]/Blood/Strength
CarpeGuitarrem [Necromancy]/Blood/Present
zhavier [Balance/Growth]/Finesse
Nopethebard MonoRed
Akiata [Past]/Anarchy/Peace
Bomber678 MonoRed
bolyarich Nightmare
dwarddd [Past/Present]/Peace
EricF [Feral]/Fire/Law
codexnewb Miracle Grow

Completed matches

Matchup plots

Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)

Deck only

Overall

Matchup tables

Deck-only

Overall

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.529
P2 0.471
Both 0.500

Overall mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.51
P2 0.49
Both 0.50

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
Nightmare 0.215 0.139 0.196
[Necromancy]/Blood/Present 0.098 0.201 0.189
Miracle Grow 0.213 0.090 0.128
[Balance]/Blood/Strength 0.071 0.142 0.114
[Past]/Anarchy/Peace 0.078 0.110 0.109
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.093 0.062 0.096
MonoRed 0.157 0.057 0.091
[Past/Present]/Peace 0.012 0.105 0.032
[Balance/Growth]/Finesse 0.029 0.055 0.025
[Feral]/Fire/Law 0.034 0.040 0.018

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
EricF 0.362 0.344 0.479
zhavier 0.166 0.207 0.183
FrozenStorm 0.168 0.184 0.152
bolyarich 0.100 0.120 0.091
Akiata 0.064 0.061 0.058
Bomber678 0.054 0.026 0.016
dwarddd 0.015 0.040 0.014
codexnewb 0.067 0.011 0.007
charnel_mouse 0.003 0.003 0.001
CarpeGuitarrem 0.001 0.005 0.000
Nopethebard 0.000 0.000 0.000

Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation

forecast Brier score
always 5-5 0.250
model 0.233